Bahia are favoured at home, with a 56.8% win probability against Mirassol's 20.8%, and the market's main handicap of -0.75 agrees. The goals markets are the most interesting area, since the model projects a game with total goals of about 3.16 and prices the over a little higher than the books do. The data is stale and lineups are not out, so treat this as a provisional read.
Bahia come in as the clear favourite, and the reasons are easy to see. They sit fifth in the table with 46 points from 28 games, while Mirassol are fifteenth with 32. The goal difference tells the same story: Bahia have scored 43 and conceded 35, and Mirassol have scored 33 and conceded 42. The market backs this with a -0.75 handicap on the home side, which implies a comfortable but not overwhelming advantage. The model gives Bahia a 56.8% chance of winning, with the draw at 22.4% and an away win at 20.8%.
The head-to-head record is less one-sided than the table. Mirassol won 5-1 in August 2025, so the visitors have shown they can punish Bahia. But the most recent meeting, in April, went to Bahia 2-1 away, and the older game at Bahia ended 1-1. I would read that as a reminder that the underdog can score, not as a sign that the favourite is vulnerable.
The goals picture is where the numbers lean most. The model puts expected goals at 3.16, with Bahia at about 2.0 and Mirassol at about 1.1. That is a high-scoring game, and it fits the main goal line of 2.75. Both teams scoring is rated at 59.6%, and over 2.5 goals at 61.2%. The most likely single scores, 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 and 1-0, are all close together, so no scoreline stands out. The outcome is wide open even though the win probabilities are clear.
The model's probabilities sit above the market's on several over lines, including full-match overs around the 2.75 line and a first-half over. The gaps are modest, at best around 5.9%. They are also a local feature. Of 444 quotes examined, only 71 show a positive edge and 373 are negative. That is what we would expect once bookmaker margin is taken out, so this is not a match full of value. An edge here is a deviation from market pricing, not a guarantee of any result.
Two cautions matter. The lineups have not been published, so injuries and suspensions are not in the numbers. The prices are also about 138 hours old, and lines often move a lot before kick-off. Both the probabilities and the apparent edges could change once teams are named and the market updates.
