PE Sant Jordi are the clear favourites at home against winless Inter Ibiza, with the model giving them 58.7% to win. The gap is driven by Ibiza's 0 points and 12 goals conceded from four games. The main handicap at -0.75 and the 2.5 goal line are the markets that frame the match, but the model sits slightly below the market price on every quote examined, so there is no pricing edge here.
This looks like a match where the table and the numbers point the same way. PE Sant Jordi sit ninth with 7 points from four games, and their recent run of a win, a win, a draw and a loss, with the loss coming first, suggests a side that has found some rhythm. They have also stayed unbeaten at home so far, with one win and one draw. Inter Ibiza are in a very different place: four defeats from four, only 2 goals scored and 12 conceded, and no home or away point to lean on. Having conceded three goals a game on average, they will struggle to hold a structured defensive line for 90 minutes.
The model turns that gap into an expected goals total of 2.62, split about 1.77 for the hosts against 0.847 for the visitors. That is why the main handicap sits at -0.75: the market expects Sant Jordi to win, but not necessarily by a wide margin. The most likely single scorelines are narrow ones, 1-0 and 2-0 for the hosts, with 1-1 close behind. A home win is the leading outcome, though a draw at 24.2% is far from negligible. Ibiza's attack has been so weak that their route to points is likely a low-scoring game rather than a shootout, and the 2.5 goal line is close to a coin flip, with the over at 48.6%.
On value, the picture is unremarkable. Of the 7 quotes examined, none shows a positive edge. They all land between about -3% and -5%, which is what you would expect from a bookmaker margin of 11.7%, since the two sides of any pair of prices will always sum to a negative edge. The home win comes closest to fair at -3.0%, but that is still below the market price, not above it. Only one bookmaker is quoting, so the comparison rests on a single source and should be read cautiously.
Two cautions apply. Lineups have not been published, so this analysis does not account for any player absences, and a late change to the starting eleven on either side could move the picture. Four games is also a very small sample: both sets of results, especially Ibiza's, could look different within a few weeks. The model sees Sant Jordi as the stronger team, but nothing in the pricing suggests the market is wrong about it.
