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Derio vs Beasain Prediction - Sunday, 4 October 2026

Competition: Spanish Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

Date: Sunday, 4 October 2026

Kickoff Time: 00:30 (GMT+8)

Last Updated: 2026-10-05T04:22:12.693Z

AI Match Analysis Summary

BB9SPORTS AI predicts Derio Win (1) for this Spanish Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 clash between Derio and Beasain on Sunday, 4 October 2026. Our ensemble machine learning model assigns a 45% probability to a home win, 29% to a draw, and 26% to an away victory. The expected goals model forecasts 1.4 xG for Derio and 1.0 xG for Beasain, totaling 2.3 expected goals. Confidence level: Medium. Analysis based on recent form, historical head-to-head data, team strength ratings, and real-time odds from major bookmakers.

BB9SPORTS AI Pre-Match Prediction

Predicted Match Result (1X2)

AI Prediction: Derio Win (1)

Confidence Level: Medium

1X2 Win Probabilities

Home Win (1) - Derio: 45%
Draw (X): 29%
Away Win (2) - Beasain: 26%

Expected Goals (xG)

Derio: 1.36 xG

Beasain: 0.97 xG

Total Expected Goals: 2.34

Model Last Updated: 2026-10-03T23:17:17.143Z

AI Prematch Analysis — Pre-Lineup

Derio are the modest favourites at home, with the model putting them at 45.2% to win against 26.1% for Beasain. The case rests on a clear gap in the early-season table and a market that expects a tight, fairly low-scoring game. The most relevant markets are the -0.25 Asian handicap and the 2.5 goals line, but the model finds no positive edge against the current prices.

Derio come into this with the better start to the Tercera RFEF Group 4 season. They sit third, unbeaten after four matches, with two wins and two draws. They have scored 5 and conceded only 2, and their home record so far is one win and one draw. Beasain are 15th with a win, a draw and two defeats. Their goal difference is negative (3 scored, 4 conceded), and their recent form of LLDW shows a team that is only just starting to pick up results. Their one away outing so far was a draw. That contrast is the main reason Derio are favoured. The favouritism is modest, though. The -0.25 handicap means the market sees only a slight home advantage, and the implied goal expectations of about 1.36 for Derio and 0.97 for Beasain agree. This points to a close game with a total of around 2.3 goals. In that kind of game the draw is a real possibility, at 28.7%. The most likely single scorelines are low ones: 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0 lead the list, followed by a 2-0 home win. Both teams scoring is a little under even, and the under 2.5 side is slightly more probable than the over. On value, the picture is unfavourable. We checked 20 quotes and none showed a positive edge against the model. The best was a small negative on the draw and the weakest was clearly worse. The bookmaker margin is also high, at 13.0%, so prices are shaded against bettors on both sides of each market. The shortlisted quotes (the draw, the home win, and either side of the handicap) all sit a few percentage points short of fair value. A negative edge only means the price is worse than the model's estimate. It says nothing certain about the result. Only 2 bookmakers are quoting, and the prices are close to a day old, so the market read is thinner than it would be for a bigger league. One limit on the analysis: lineups have not been announced, so the model does not account for any player absences. Early-season samples of four games are also small, and a late team-news change could move the picture. Overall, this looks like a game where Derio have a slight edge on the pitch and the market has already priced it in.

Home Win: 45.2%, Draw: 28.7%, Away Win: 26.1%

Expected Goals: 2.3 (Home xG: 1.36, Away xG: 0.97)

Most Likely Score: 1-1

Over 2.5: 41.4%, BTTS: 46.9%

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